This report examines the causes and consequences of food inflation in Canada between 2019 and 2025.
The report reveals that the average Canadian food basket cost rose 34 per cent over six years, far outpacing general inflation. The sharp increase has disproportionately impacted low- and middle-income households, with the lowest-income families now spending nearly 30 per cent of their disposable income on food. Meanwhile, food insecurity has climbed to alarming levels, potentially affecting up to one in three Canadians.
Dr. Martin Gooch, CEO of Value Chain Management International (VCMI) states that food inflation is a social crisis, not just an economic statistic. “Lower-income Canadians are being squeezed hardest, while structural issues in the food system continue to fuel volatility”. Cost pressures have been transmitted along the food value chain, identifying clear winners and losers:
- Farmers tied to global markets gained temporarily, but many others were hit by drought and rising input costs.
- Retailers saw margins increase despite absorbing some upstream costs.
- Consumers faced the greatest financial strain, altering shopping habits and nutrition choices.
Dr. Gooch states, “Canada cannot afford to treat food inflation as business-as-usual. We need to view the food system as one interconnected chain. By improving productivity and fostering collaboration, we can reduce cost pressures and safeguard Canadians’ access to affordable, nutritious food.”
Published by: Value Chain Management International
Publication Date: October, 2025
Click here to access Food Inflation in Canada: Winners, Losers, and the Path Forward (2019-2025)
Click here to access the Executive Summary.
